東京地方 天気予報
降水確率精度検証結果一覧表
表の見方と注意事項
グラフ 戻る
2026/01
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/75 | 0/33 | 0/14 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | 50 | | | | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/1 | 0/11 | 0/15 | 0/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | | | | | | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 0/23 | 1/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 20 | | | | | | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/27 | 1/3 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 33 | 0 | | | | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/27 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 25 | | | | | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/29 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 3 | 0 | | | | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/28 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 50 | | | | | | | |
2026/02
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/59 | 0/30 | 1/12 | 0/2 | 0/1 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/13 | 0/4 | 1/6 | 0/1 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 100 | | 100 | | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/13 | 1/5 | 1/4 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 20 | 25 | 50 | | 100 | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/10 | 1/8 | 1/3 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 13 | 33 | 33 | | 100 | 100 | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/11 | 2/9 | 1/6 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 22 | 17 | | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/11 | 2/11 | 0/3 | 2/2 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 9 | 18 | 0 | 100 | 0 | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/11 | 2/10 | 1/5 | 1/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 9 | 20 | 20 | 100 | 0 | | | | |
2026/03
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/40 | 0/31 | 1/25 | 2/8 | 1/1 | 6/8 | 1/1 | 2/4 | 3/3 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 100 | 75 | 100 | 50 | 100 | 100 | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/8 | 0/4 | 3/7 | 0/3 | 3/4 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 75 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/9 | 2/7 | 0/2 | 5/7 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 71 | 67 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/7 | 1/6 | 2/6 | 5/7 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 17 | 33 | 71 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 1/8 | 1/7 | 2/7 | 5/6 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 13 | 14 | 29 | 83 | | 100 | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/8 | 1/11 | 2/4 | 6/7 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 13 | 9 | 50 | 86 | | 100 | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/7 | 1/13 | 3/5 | 6/6 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 14 | 8 | 60 | 100 | | | | | |
2026/04
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/50 | 1/29 | 0/13 | 1/6 | 0/0 | 6/9 | 2/3 | 6/6 | 4/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 17 | | 67 | 67 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/7 | 0/4 | 0/4 | 1/3 | 4/4 | 2/2 | 3/4 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 100 | 100 | 75 | 100 | | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/8 | 0/5 | 2/5 | 5/6 | 2/2 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 83 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/7 | 0/7 | 2/5 | 5/6 | 2/2 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 0 | 40 | 83 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/7 | 0/6 | 2/6 | 7/8 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 0 | 33 | 88 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/5 | 1/8 | 5/10 | 6/7 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 13 | 50 | 86 | | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 4/14 | 4/9 | 4/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 29 | 44 | 80 | | | | | |
2026/05
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/53 | 0/34 | 2/18 | 2/8 | 0/0 | 3/5 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 25 | | 60 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/10 | 0/8 | 2/3 | 0/5 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 67 | 0 | | 50 | | 100 | | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 0/5 | 2/12 | 0/5 | 0/1 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/6 | 2/13 | 0/7 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/7 | 2/13 | 0/6 | 2/3 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 15 | 0 | 67 | 100 | | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/8 | 2/12 | 2/7 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 17 | 29 | 50 | | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/7 | 2/12 | 3/10 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 14 | 17 | 30 | 0 | | | | | |
2026/06
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/13 | 0/32 | 1/27 | 5/17 | 2/3 | 5/8 | 4/4 | 10/10 | 3/3 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 67 | 63 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/4 | 1/6 | 4/8 | 1/1 | 5/5 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 17 | 50 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 1/5 | 5/14 | 3/3 | 2/2 | 4/4 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 20 | 36 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 2/5 | 4/10 | 5/9 | 3/3 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 40 | 40 | 56 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 3/5 | 5/12 | 4/8 | 3/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 60 | 42 | 50 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 3/4 | 6/13 | 6/11 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 75 | 46 | 55 | 100 | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 3/5 | 5/12 | 8/12 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | | 60 | 42 | 67 | 0 | | | | |
2026/07
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/22 | 2/35 | 1/32 | 1/17 | 0/1 | 4/10 | 1/4 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 40 | 25 | 67 | | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 1/8 | 1/4 | 4/10 | 3/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 13 | 25 | 40 | 60 | | | 100 | | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 2/10 | 4/10 | 3/7 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 20 | 40 | 43 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 2/9 | 5/10 | 2/7 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 22 | 50 | 29 | 100 | | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 3/14 | 5/9 | 2/5 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 21 | 56 | 40 | 100 | | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 2/13 | 8/12 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 15 | 67 | 33 | | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 3/17 | 7/10 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 18 | 70 | 33 | | | | | |
2026/08
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/10 | 0/23 | 2/42 | 2/20 | 1/4 | 6/14 | 4/8 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 43 | 50 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 3/9 | 2/9 | 3/5 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 33 | 22 | 60 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 2/13 | 4/9 | 5/7 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 15 | 44 | 71 | 100 | | | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2/14 | 3/9 | 6/7 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | | 14 | 33 | 86 | 100 | | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 4/15 | 5/12 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 27 | 42 | 100 | | | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 4/14 | 5/11 | 3/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 29 | 45 | 75 | | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/4 | 3/11 | 5/12 | 3/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 25 | 27 | 42 | 75 | | | | | |
2026/09
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/5 | 0/13 | 2/24 | 3/11 | 1/4 | 14/26 | 6/9 | 7/9 | 11/13 | 4/4 | 2/2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 27 | 25 | 54 | 67 | 78 | 85 | 100 | 100 |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 2/6 | 3/5 | 3/4 | 2/2 | 7/7 | 3/3 | 0/0 | | | | 0 | 33 | 60 | 75 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 4/8 | 4/5 | 4/4 | 6/7 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | | 0 | 50 | 80 | 100 | 86 | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/5 | 4/7 | 6/7 | 3/3 | 6/7 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | | 0 | 57 | 86 | 100 | 86 | 100 | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 6/12 | 6/7 | 6/7 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | | 0 | 50 | 86 | 86 | 100 | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 6/12 | 13/15 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | | 50 | 50 | 87 | 0 | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 11/20 | 8/8 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | | 100 | 55 | 100 | 0 | | | | |
2026年合計
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/327 | 3/260 | 10/207 | 16/89 | 5/14 | 47/85 | 20/31 | 31/36 | 26/28 | 10/10 | 5/5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 36 | 55 | 65 | 86 | 93 | 100 | 100 |
| 2日前予報 | 0/1 | 0/52 | 1/51 | 11/45 | 14/46 | 19/26 | 15/17 | 11/12 | 17/17 | 6/6 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 30 | 73 | 88 | 92 | 100 | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/11 | 0/62 | 11/66 | 20/57 | 26/38 | 14/15 | 17/18 | 6/6 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 17 | 35 | 68 | 93 | 94 | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/5 | 0/61 | 11/70 | 21/58 | 30/46 | 14/14 | 15/16 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 16 | 36 | 65 | 100 | 94 | 100 | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 1/64 | 16/75 | 26/70 | 29/40 | 14/15 | 8/8 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 2 | 21 | 37 | 73 | 93 | 100 | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 3/67 | 16/77 | 34/72 | 39/53 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 4 | 21 | 47 | 74 | 33 | 100 | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 4/60 | 20/85 | 39/83 | 31/41 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 7 | 24 | 47 | 76 | 0 | | | | |
降水確率的中率のグラフ
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Last updated 2026/10/01
連絡先：tf2