東京地方 天気予報
降水確率精度検証結果一覧表
表の見方と注意事項
グラフ 戻る
2025/01
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/62 | 0/36 | 0/18 | 0/4 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | 100 | 100 | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/16 | 0/5 | 0/5 | 0/2 | 0/2 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | | | | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/10 | 0/11 | 0/6 | 1/2 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 0 | | | | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 0/17 | 0/6 | 1/1 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 0 | | | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/20 | 0/4 | 1/3 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | | | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/22 | 0/5 | 1/1 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 0 | 100 | 0 | | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/22 | 1/6 | 0/1 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0 | | | | | |
2025/02
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/66 | 0/29 | 0/14 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | 100 | | | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/18 | 0/5 | 0/2 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | 100 | | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/7 | 0/17 | 0/2 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/6 | 0/18 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | 100 | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/20 | 0/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | 100 | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/20 | 0/5 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 100 | | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/20 | 0/5 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 100 | | | | | |
2025/03
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/48 | 0/30 | 2/16 | 1/7 | 2/2 | 6/7 | 1/2 | 5/6 | 4/4 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 14 | 100 | 86 | 50 | 83 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| 2日前予報 | 0/4 | 0/5 | 0/3 | 0/6 | 0/3 | 3/4 | 1/1 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 75 | 100 | 100 | | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/6 | 0/5 | 0/6 | 0/3 | 3/5 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/6 | 0/4 | 0/6 | 0/4 | 5/7 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 0/8 | 0/4 | 1/6 | 4/5 | 3/4 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 80 | 75 | 100 | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/10 | 1/9 | 2/6 | 2/2 | 3/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 11 | 33 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/10 | 1/9 | 3/7 | 4/4 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 11 | 43 | 100 | 100 | | | | |
2025/04
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/46 | 0/22 | 3/22 | 2/9 | 0/0 | 6/10 | 0/1 | 1/1 | 7/7 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 22 | | 60 | 0 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/1 | 0/9 | 1/3 | 3/6 | 0/3 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 4/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 50 | 0 | 67 | | 100 | 100 | | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 1/6 | 0/6 | 3/6 | 1/5 | 1/2 | 3/3 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 17 | 0 | 50 | 20 | 50 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 0/8 | 3/7 | 1/2 | 3/5 | 3/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 43 | 50 | 60 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 1/8 | 2/7 | 2/4 | 4/6 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 13 | 29 | 50 | 67 | 100 | | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 1/11 | 2/7 | 4/4 | 4/7 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 9 | 29 | 100 | 57 | | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2/13 | 1/6 | 5/5 | 3/6 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 15 | 17 | 100 | 50 | | | | | |
2025/05
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/41 | 0/27 | 1/18 | 0/5 | 0/4 | 6/12 | 3/4 | 2/2 | 5/5 | 5/6 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 75 | 100 | 100 | 83 | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/6 | 0/4 | 1/5 | 2/3 | 2/4 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 4/4 | 1/1 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 20 | 67 | 50 | 67 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/5 | 2/5 | 2/8 | 3/6 | 3/3 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 40 | 25 | 50 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/7 | 3/5 | 3/10 | 2/4 | 3/3 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 60 | 30 | 50 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/6 | 3/6 | 3/12 | 4/5 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 17 | 50 | 25 | 80 | 100 | | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 6/10 | 4/13 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 60 | 31 | 67 | 100 | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/5 | 6/9 | 4/12 | 2/4 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 67 | 33 | 50 | 100 | | | | |
2025/06
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/35 | 1/29 | 3/29 | 0/7 | 0/0 | 3/6 | 3/4 | 2/5 | 5/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | | 50 | 75 | 40 | 100 | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 1/3 | 0/10 | 0/7 | 0/2 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 3/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 1/4 | 0/14 | 0/1 | 5/8 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 63 | | 100 | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/4 | 0/11 | 0/6 | 5/7 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 25 | 0 | 0 | 71 | | 100 | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 0/11 | 1/9 | 4/6 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 50 | 0 | 11 | 67 | 100 | | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 1/11 | 1/9 | 6/9 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 9 | 11 | 67 | | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 3/12 | 0/12 | 5/6 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | | 25 | 0 | 83 | | | | | |
2025/07
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/22 | 0/31 | 0/48 | 0/4 | 0/2 | 1/6 | 6/9 | 0/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 67 | 0 | 100 | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/12 | 0/9 | 1/4 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 50 | | 100 | 100 | | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/11 | 0/8 | 2/6 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 33 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/12 | 1/6 | 1/9 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 17 | 11 | 100 | 100 | | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/14 | 1/4 | 1/8 | 3/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 25 | 13 | 75 | | | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/13 | 1/8 | 1/5 | 3/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 13 | 20 | 60 | | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/13 | 0/6 | 2/9 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 8 | 0 | 22 | 67 | | | | | |
2025/08
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/12 | 0/36 | 1/52 | 2/8 | 0/2 | 6/10 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 0 | 60 | 50 | 100 | 0 | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/11 | 1/10 | 2/4 | 3/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 10 | 50 | 75 | | | 100 | | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 2/14 | 2/9 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 14 | 22 | 67 | 100 | | | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 2/12 | 2/9 | 3/6 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 17 | 22 | 50 | | | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 4/17 | 1/6 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 24 | 17 | 50 | | | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 4/20 | 2/5 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 20 | 40 | 50 | | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/6 | 5/19 | 1/4 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 26 | 25 | 50 | | | | | |
2025/09
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/23 | 0/36 | 1/26 | 1/11 | 0/0 | 6/19 | 3/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | | 32 | 60 | | | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 0/8 | 1/5 | 1/5 | 1/3 | 3/4 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 20 | 20 | 33 | 75 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/6 | 1/11 | 1/5 | 3/5 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 9 | 20 | 60 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/6 | 0/10 | 2/6 | 5/7 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 0 | 33 | 71 | | 100 | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/5 | 0/11 | 4/9 | 3/4 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 0 | 44 | 75 | 100 | | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/12 | 4/11 | 4/6 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 0 | 36 | 67 | | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 1/12 | 5/13 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 8 | 38 | 50 | | | | | |
2025年合計
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/355 | 1/276 | 11/243 | 6/56 | 2/12 | 34/70 | 19/29 | 12/17 | 23/24 | 8/9 | 1/1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 17 | 49 | 66 | 71 | 96 | 89 | 100 |
| 2日前予報 | 0/5 | 1/62 | 1/61 | 6/55 | 6/28 | 14/25 | 8/10 | 11/11 | 13/13 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 21 | 56 | 80 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 1/32 | 1/69 | 8/72 | 9/40 | 18/34 | 11/11 | 10/10 | 5/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 3 | 1 | 11 | 23 | 53 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/21 | 1/80 | 9/66 | 10/47 | 24/40 | 10/10 | 7/7 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 1 | 14 | 21 | 60 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/10 | 3/87 | 10/69 | 14/57 | 24/37 | 10/11 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 3 | 14 | 25 | 65 | 91 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 1/86 | 15/87 | 19/54 | 23/38 | 4/4 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 1 | 17 | 35 | 61 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 3/90 | 18/84 | 20/63 | 20/32 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 3 | 21 | 32 | 63 | 100 | | | | |
降水確率的中率のグラフ
戻る
Last updated 2025/10/01
連絡先：tf2