東京地方 天気予報
降水確率精度検証結果一覧表
表の見方と注意事項
グラフ 戻る
2025/01
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/62 | 0/36 | 0/18 | 0/4 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | 100 | 100 | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/16 | 0/5 | 0/5 | 0/2 | 0/2 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | | | | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/10 | 0/11 | 0/6 | 1/2 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 0 | | | | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 0/17 | 0/6 | 1/1 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 0 | | | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/20 | 0/4 | 1/3 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | | | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/22 | 0/5 | 1/1 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 0 | 100 | 0 | | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/22 | 1/6 | 0/1 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 17 | 0 | 0 | | | | | |
2025/02
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/66 | 0/29 | 0/14 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | 100 | | | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/18 | 0/5 | 0/2 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | 100 | | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/7 | 0/17 | 0/2 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/6 | 0/18 | 0/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | 100 | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/20 | 0/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | 100 | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/20 | 0/5 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 100 | | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/20 | 0/5 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 100 | | | | | |
2025/03
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/48 | 0/30 | 2/16 | 1/7 | 2/2 | 6/7 | 1/2 | 5/6 | 4/4 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 14 | 100 | 86 | 50 | 83 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| 2日前予報 | 0/4 | 0/5 | 0/3 | 0/6 | 0/3 | 3/4 | 1/1 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 75 | 100 | 100 | | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/6 | 0/5 | 0/6 | 0/3 | 3/5 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/6 | 0/4 | 0/6 | 0/4 | 5/7 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 71 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 0/8 | 0/4 | 1/6 | 4/5 | 3/4 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 80 | 75 | 100 | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/10 | 1/9 | 2/6 | 2/2 | 3/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 11 | 33 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/10 | 1/9 | 3/7 | 4/4 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 11 | 43 | 100 | 100 | | | | |
2025/04
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/46 | 0/22 | 3/22 | 2/9 | 0/0 | 6/10 | 0/1 | 1/1 | 7/7 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 22 | | 60 | 0 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/1 | 0/9 | 1/3 | 3/6 | 0/3 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 4/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 50 | 0 | 67 | | 100 | 100 | | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 1/6 | 0/6 | 3/6 | 1/5 | 1/2 | 3/3 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 17 | 0 | 50 | 20 | 50 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 0/8 | 3/7 | 1/2 | 3/5 | 3/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 43 | 50 | 60 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 1/8 | 2/7 | 2/4 | 4/6 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 13 | 29 | 50 | 67 | 100 | | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 1/11 | 2/7 | 4/4 | 4/7 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 9 | 29 | 100 | 57 | | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2/13 | 1/6 | 5/5 | 3/6 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 15 | 17 | 100 | 50 | | | | | |
2025/05
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/41 | 0/27 | 1/18 | 0/5 | 0/4 | 6/12 | 3/4 | 2/2 | 5/5 | 5/6 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 75 | 100 | 100 | 83 | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/6 | 0/4 | 1/5 | 2/3 | 2/4 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 4/4 | 1/1 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 20 | 67 | 50 | 67 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/5 | 2/5 | 2/8 | 3/6 | 3/3 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 40 | 25 | 50 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/7 | 3/5 | 3/10 | 2/4 | 3/3 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 60 | 30 | 50 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/6 | 3/6 | 3/12 | 4/5 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 17 | 50 | 25 | 80 | 100 | | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 6/10 | 4/13 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 60 | 31 | 67 | 100 | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/5 | 6/9 | 4/12 | 2/4 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 67 | 33 | 50 | 100 | | | | |
2025/06
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/35 | 1/29 | 3/29 | 0/7 | 0/0 | 3/6 | 3/4 | 2/5 | 5/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 0 | | 50 | 75 | 40 | 100 | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 1/3 | 0/10 | 0/7 | 0/2 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 3/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 1/4 | 0/14 | 0/1 | 5/8 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 63 | | 100 | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/4 | 0/11 | 0/6 | 5/7 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 25 | 0 | 0 | 71 | | 100 | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 0/11 | 1/9 | 4/6 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 50 | 0 | 11 | 67 | 100 | | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 1/11 | 1/9 | 6/9 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 9 | 11 | 67 | | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 3/12 | 0/12 | 5/6 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | | 25 | 0 | 83 | | | | | |
2025/07
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/22 | 0/31 | 0/48 | 0/4 | 0/2 | 1/6 | 6/9 | 0/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 67 | 0 | 100 | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/12 | 0/9 | 1/4 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 50 | | 100 | 100 | | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/11 | 0/8 | 2/6 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 33 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/12 | 1/6 | 1/9 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 17 | 11 | 100 | 100 | | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/14 | 1/4 | 1/8 | 3/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 25 | 13 | 75 | | | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/13 | 1/8 | 1/5 | 3/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 13 | 20 | 60 | | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/13 | 0/6 | 2/9 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 8 | 0 | 22 | 67 | | | | | |
2025年合計
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/320 | 1/204 | 9/165 | 3/37 | 2/10 | 22/41 | 15/22 | 11/16 | 23/23 | 8/9 | 1/1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 54 | 68 | 69 | 100 | 89 | 100 |
| 2日前予報 | 0/5 | 1/58 | 1/42 | 4/40 | 3/19 | 10/18 | 5/6 | 10/10 | 11/11 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 16 | 56 | 83 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 1/32 | 1/59 | 5/47 | 6/26 | 13/26 | 9/9 | 8/8 | 5/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 3 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 50 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/21 | 1/70 | 7/44 | 6/32 | 16/27 | 10/10 | 6/6 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 1 | 16 | 19 | 59 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/10 | 3/78 | 6/41 | 9/42 | 19/29 | 9/10 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 4 | 15 | 21 | 66 | 90 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 1/81 | 11/55 | 13/38 | 18/30 | 4/4 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 1 | 20 | 34 | 60 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 3/83 | 12/53 | 14/46 | 17/26 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 4 | 23 | 30 | 65 | 100 | | | | |
降水確率的中率のグラフ
戻る
Last updated 2025/08/01
連絡先：tf2