東京地方 天気予報

  降水確率精度検証結果一覧表

表の見方と注意事項

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2024/01
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/760/310/100/00/12/30/10/01/11/10/0000 0670 100100 
 2日前予報0/50/101/90/30/10/11/10/00/01/10/00011000100  100 
 3日前予報0/00/91/150/20/20/01/20/01/10/00/0 0700 50 100  
 4日前予報0/00/61/190/40/00/01/11/10/00/00/0 050  100100   
 5日前予報0/00/81/160/40/10/00/01/11/10/00/0 0600  100100  
 6日前予報0/00/51/180/50/10/01/10/01/10/00/0 0600 100 100  
 7日前予報0/00/31/210/51/10/01/10/00/00/00/0 050100 100    

2024/02
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/371/401/72/51/36/106/111/12/20/00/0031440336055100100  
 2日前予報0/00/110/31/31/31/12/21/21/22/20/0 0033331001005050100 
 3日前予報0/00/41/110/41/21/13/31/21/11/10/0 0905010010050100100 
 4日前予報0/00/41/111/20/40/14/42/20/01/10/0 095000100100 100 
 5日前予報0/01/21/140/10/41/12/32/21/11/10/0 5070010067100100100 
 6日前予報0/00/11/92/90/32/21/22/21/10/00/0 01122010050100100  
 7日前予報0/00/20/72/92/53/31/21/10/00/00/0 00224010050100   

2024/03
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/540/320/112/30/16/93/33/45/52/20/00006706710075100100 
 2日前予報0/20/120/40/10/02/23/41/12/23/30/00000 10075100100100 
 3日前予報0/00/50/120/21/13/42/22/23/30/00/0 00010075100100100  
 4日前予報0/00/40/112/41/31/23/33/31/10/00/0 00503350100100100  
 5日前予報0/00/41/131/41/23/33/32/20/00/00/0 082550100100100   
 6日前予報0/00/20/143/61/23/33/31/10/00/00/0 005050100100100   
 7日前予報0/00/30/103/81/36/61/10/00/00/00/0 003833100100    

2024/04
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/461/223/180/110/24/64/62/34/42/20/0051700676767100100 
 2日前予報0/21/91/31/31/33/41/31/12/20/00/00113333337533100100  
 3日前予報0/00/52/61/43/81/20/03/41/10/00/0 033253850 75100  
 4日前予報0/00/22/90/34/82/42/31/10/00/00/0 0220505067100   
 5日前予報0/00/12/102/43/92/32/30/00/00/00/0 02050336767    
 6日前予報0/00/02/94/112/41/42/20/00/00/00/0  22365025100    
 7日前予報0/00/02/84/122/41/42/20/00/00/00/0  25335025100    

2024/05
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/500/291/90/70/13/93/45/66/63/30/0001100337583100100 
 2日前予報0/40/41/60/52/31/21/12/23/31/10/0001706750100100100100 
 3日前予報0/00/71/72/50/16/80/01/20/01/10/0 01440075 50 100 
 4日前予報0/00/51/72/62/44/71/11/10/00/00/0 014335057100100   
 5日前予報0/00/12/92/72/63/61/11/10/00/00/0 022293350100100   
 6日前予報0/00/01/91/44/103/62/20/00/00/00/0  11254050100    
 7日前予報0/00/01/72/74/104/70/00/00/00/00/0  14294057     

2024/06
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/231/372/304/110/02/54/64/42/22/20/003736 4067100100100 
 2日前予報0/00/42/81/60/34/61/10/01/11/10/0 02517067100 100100 
 3日前予報0/00/11/81/62/53/62/31/10/00/00/0 01317405067100   
 4日前予報0/00/11/42/72/72/72/31/10/00/00/0 02529292967100   
 5日前予報0/00/00/13/101/74/91/21/10/00/00/0  030144450100   
 6日前予報0/00/00/03/105/122/70/10/00/00/00/0   3042290    
 7日前予報0/00/00/03/116/141/50/00/00/00/00/0   274320     

2024/07
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/270/193/322/143/96/143/90/00/00/00/000914334333    
 2日前予報0/00/21/52/105/91/31/20/00/00/00/0 02020563350    
 3日前予報0/00/01/31/96/140/32/20/00/00/00/0  3311430100    
 4日前予報0/00/01/24/123/112/60/00/00/00/00/0  50332733     
 5日前予報0/00/01/25/143/111/40/00/00/00/00/0  50362725     
 6日前予報0/00/01/25/112/141/31/10/00/00/00/0  50451433100    
 7日前予報0/00/01/25/112/142/40/00/00/00/00/0  50451450     

2024/08
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/100/321/364/211/55/105/51/11/13/30/0003192050100100100100 
 2日前予報0/00/10/50/73/73/51/21/12/20/01/1 000436050100100 100
 3日前予報0/00/00/41/93/73/50/12/32/20/00/0  0114360067100  
 4日前予報0/00/00/42/112/53/52/32/30/00/00/0  01840606767   
 5日前予報0/00/00/21/93/107/100/00/00/00/00/0  0113070     
 6日前予報0/00/01/32/74/164/50/00/00/00/00/0  33292580     
 7日前予報0/00/01/22/97/181/20/00/00/00/00/0  50223950     

2024/09
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/100/374/333/130/44/132/43/51/10/00/00012230315060100  
 2日前予報0/00/11/42/82/64/61/21/20/10/00/0 02525336750500  
 3日前予報0/00/01/51/73/74/71/31/10/00/00/0  2014435733100   
 4日前予報0/00/00/54/104/70/42/31/10/00/00/0  04057067100   
 5日前予報0/00/00/43/105/71/51/21/20/00/00/0  03071205050   
 6日前予報0/00/01/44/123/82/40/11/10/00/00/0  253338500100   
 7日前予報0/00/01/33/134/82/51/10/00/00/00/0  33235040100    

2024/10
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/180/472/171/110/53/76/104/44/41/10/00012904360100100100 
 2日前予報0/00/00/71/73/92/22/23/31/10/00/0  01433100100100100  
 3日前予報0/00/00/31/114/93/43/30/01/10/00/0  094475100 100  
 4日前予報0/00/10/21/106/111/33/31/10/00/00/0 00105533100100   
 5日前予報0/00/10/12/105/134/51/10/00/00/00/0 00203880100    
 6日前予報0/00/00/22/115/115/70/00/00/00/00/0  0184571     
 7日前予報0/00/00/32/84/135/61/10/00/00/00/0  0253183100    

2024/11
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/590/290/101/31/30/34/45/72/20/00/00003333010071100  
 2日前予報0/00/110/40/11/63/51/11/11/10/00/0 0001760100100100  
 3日前予報0/00/70/60/52/53/31/20/11/10/00/0 00040100500100  
 4日前予報0/00/30/110/31/53/53/30/00/00/00/0 0002060100    
 5日前予報0/00/00/140/33/71/32/21/10/00/00/0  004333100100   
 6日前予報0/00/00/130/53/61/23/40/00/00/00/0  00505075    
 7日前予報0/00/00/131/83/52/31/10/00/00/00/0  0136067100    

2024/12
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/840/320/70/10/00/00/00/00/00/00/00000       
 2日前予報0/00/190/100/00/20/00/00/00/00/00/0 00 0      
 3日前予報0/00/70/220/00/20/00/00/00/00/00/0 00 0      
 4日前予報0/00/40/250/00/20/00/00/00/00/00/0 00 0      
 5日前予報0/00/40/220/30/20/00/00/00/00/00/0 0000      
 6日前予報0/00/00/260/40/10/00/00/00/00/00/0  000      
 7日前予報0/00/00/250/50/10/00/00/00/00/00/0  000      

2024合計
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/4943/38717/22019/1006/3441/8940/6328/3528/2814/140/00181918466380100100 
 2日前予報0/131/847/688/5418/5224/3715/2111/1313/158/81/10110153565718587100100
 3日前予報0/00/458/1028/6425/6327/4315/2111/1610/102/20/0 081340637169100100 
 4日前予報0/00/307/11018/7225/6718/4423/2713/141/11/10/0 062537418593100100 
 5日前予報0/01/218/10819/7926/7927/4913/179/102/21/10/0 572433557690100100 
 6日前予報0/00/88/10926/9529/8824/4313/174/42/20/00/0 0727335676100100  
 7日前予報0/00/87/10127/10636/9627/458/91/10/00/00/0 0725386089100   



年合計
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/4943/38717/22019/1006/3441/8940/6328/3528/2814/140/00181918466380100100 
 2日前予報0/131/847/688/5418/5224/3715/2111/1313/158/81/10110153565718587100100
 3日前予報0/00/458/1028/6425/6327/4315/2111/1610/102/20/0 081340637169100100 
 4日前予報0/00/307/11018/7225/6718/4423/2713/141/11/10/0 062537418593100100 
 5日前予報0/01/218/10819/7926/7927/4913/179/102/21/10/0 572433557690100100 
 6日前予報0/00/88/10926/9529/8824/4313/174/42/20/00/0 0727335676100100  
 7日前予報0/00/87/10127/10636/9627/458/91/10/00/00/0 0725386089100   


降水確率的中率のグラフ
降水確率的中率

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Last updated 2025/01/01

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