東京地方 天気予報
降水確率精度検証結果一覧表
表の見方と注意事項
グラフ 戻る
2024/01
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/76 | 0/31 | 0/10 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 2/3 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 0 | 67 | 0 | | 100 | 100 | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/5 | 0/10 | 1/9 | 0/3 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | | | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/9 | 1/15 | 0/2 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | | 50 | | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/6 | 1/19 | 0/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 5 | 0 | | | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/8 | 1/16 | 0/4 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | | | 100 | 100 | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/5 | 1/18 | 0/5 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | | 100 | | 100 | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 1/21 | 0/5 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 5 | 0 | 100 | | 100 | | | | |
2024/02
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/37 | 1/40 | 1/7 | 2/5 | 1/3 | 6/10 | 6/11 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 40 | 33 | 60 | 55 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/11 | 0/3 | 1/3 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 2/2 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 33 | 33 | 100 | 100 | 50 | 50 | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 1/11 | 0/4 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 3/3 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | | 0 | 9 | 0 | 50 | 100 | 100 | 50 | 100 | 100 | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 1/11 | 1/2 | 0/4 | 0/1 | 4/4 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | | 0 | 9 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 100 | | 100 | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 1/14 | 0/1 | 0/4 | 1/1 | 2/3 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | | 50 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 67 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 1/9 | 2/9 | 0/3 | 2/2 | 1/2 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 11 | 22 | 0 | 100 | 50 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/7 | 2/9 | 2/5 | 3/3 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 22 | 40 | 100 | 50 | 100 | | | |
2024/03
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/54 | 0/32 | 0/11 | 2/3 | 0/1 | 6/9 | 3/3 | 3/4 | 5/5 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 0 | 67 | 100 | 75 | 100 | 100 | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/2 | 0/12 | 0/4 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 3/4 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 100 | 75 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/5 | 0/12 | 0/2 | 1/1 | 3/4 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 75 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 0/11 | 2/4 | 1/3 | 1/2 | 3/3 | 3/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 50 | 33 | 50 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 1/13 | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3/3 | 3/3 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 8 | 25 | 50 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/14 | 3/6 | 1/2 | 3/3 | 3/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 50 | 50 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 0/10 | 3/8 | 1/3 | 6/6 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 38 | 33 | 100 | 100 | | | | |
2024/04
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/46 | 1/22 | 3/18 | 0/11 | 0/2 | 4/6 | 4/6 | 2/3 | 4/4 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 67 | 67 | 100 | 100 | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/2 | 1/9 | 1/3 | 1/3 | 1/3 | 3/4 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 11 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 75 | 33 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/5 | 2/6 | 1/4 | 3/8 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 3/4 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 33 | 25 | 38 | 50 | | 75 | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 2/9 | 0/3 | 4/8 | 2/4 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 22 | 0 | 50 | 50 | 67 | 100 | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 2/10 | 2/4 | 3/9 | 2/3 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 20 | 50 | 33 | 67 | 67 | | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2/9 | 4/11 | 2/4 | 1/4 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 22 | 36 | 50 | 25 | 100 | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2/8 | 4/12 | 2/4 | 1/4 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 25 | 33 | 50 | 25 | 100 | | | | |
2024/05
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/50 | 0/29 | 1/9 | 0/7 | 0/1 | 3/9 | 3/4 | 5/6 | 6/6 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 75 | 83 | 100 | 100 | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/4 | 0/4 | 1/6 | 0/5 | 2/3 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 3/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 67 | 50 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/7 | 1/7 | 2/5 | 0/1 | 6/8 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | | 0 | 14 | 40 | 0 | 75 | | 50 | | 100 | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/5 | 1/7 | 2/6 | 2/4 | 4/7 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 14 | 33 | 50 | 57 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 2/9 | 2/7 | 2/6 | 3/6 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 22 | 29 | 33 | 50 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/9 | 1/4 | 4/10 | 3/6 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 11 | 25 | 40 | 50 | 100 | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/7 | 2/7 | 4/10 | 4/7 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 14 | 29 | 40 | 57 | | | | | |
2024/06
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/23 | 1/37 | 2/30 | 4/11 | 0/0 | 2/5 | 4/6 | 4/4 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 36 | | 40 | 67 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 2/8 | 1/6 | 0/3 | 4/6 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | | 0 | 25 | 17 | 0 | 67 | 100 | | 100 | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 1/8 | 1/6 | 2/5 | 3/6 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 13 | 17 | 40 | 50 | 67 | 100 | | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 1/4 | 2/7 | 2/7 | 2/7 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 25 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 67 | 100 | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 3/10 | 1/7 | 4/9 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 30 | 14 | 44 | 50 | 100 | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 3/10 | 5/12 | 2/7 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | | 30 | 42 | 29 | 0 | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 3/11 | 6/14 | 1/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | | 27 | 43 | 20 | | | | | |
2024/07
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/27 | 0/19 | 3/32 | 2/14 | 3/9 | 6/14 | 3/9 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 14 | 33 | 43 | 33 | | | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 1/5 | 2/10 | 5/9 | 1/3 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 20 | 20 | 56 | 33 | 50 | | | | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/3 | 1/9 | 6/14 | 0/3 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 33 | 11 | 43 | 0 | 100 | | | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 4/12 | 3/11 | 2/6 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 50 | 33 | 27 | 33 | | | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 5/14 | 3/11 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 50 | 36 | 27 | 25 | | | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 5/11 | 2/14 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 50 | 45 | 14 | 33 | 100 | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 5/11 | 2/14 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 50 | 45 | 14 | 50 | | | | | |
2024/08
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/10 | 0/32 | 1/36 | 4/21 | 1/5 | 5/10 | 5/5 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 20 | 50 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/5 | 0/7 | 3/7 | 3/5 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 1/1 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 60 | 50 | 100 | 100 | | 100 |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 1/9 | 3/7 | 3/5 | 0/1 | 2/3 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 11 | 43 | 60 | 0 | 67 | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 2/11 | 2/5 | 3/5 | 2/3 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 18 | 40 | 60 | 67 | 67 | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 1/9 | 3/10 | 7/10 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 11 | 30 | 70 | | | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/3 | 2/7 | 4/16 | 4/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 33 | 29 | 25 | 80 | | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 2/9 | 7/18 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 50 | 22 | 39 | 50 | | | | | |
2024/09
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/10 | 0/37 | 4/33 | 3/13 | 0/4 | 4/13 | 2/4 | 3/5 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 23 | 0 | 31 | 50 | 60 | 100 | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 1/4 | 2/8 | 2/6 | 4/6 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 25 | 25 | 33 | 67 | 50 | 50 | 0 | | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/5 | 1/7 | 3/7 | 4/7 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 20 | 14 | 43 | 57 | 33 | 100 | | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/5 | 4/10 | 4/7 | 0/4 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 40 | 57 | 0 | 67 | 100 | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 3/10 | 5/7 | 1/5 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 30 | 71 | 20 | 50 | 50 | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/4 | 4/12 | 3/8 | 2/4 | 0/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 25 | 33 | 38 | 50 | 0 | 100 | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/3 | 3/13 | 4/8 | 2/5 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 33 | 23 | 50 | 40 | 100 | | | | |
2024年合計
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/333 | 3/279 | 15/186 | 17/85 | 5/26 | 38/79 | 30/49 | 19/24 | 22/22 | 13/13 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 19 | 48 | 61 | 79 | 100 | 100 | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/13 | 1/54 | 7/47 | 7/46 | 14/35 | 19/30 | 12/18 | 7/9 | 11/13 | 8/8 | 1/1 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 15 | 40 | 63 | 67 | 78 | 85 | 100 | 100 |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/31 | 8/71 | 7/48 | 19/47 | 21/36 | 11/16 | 11/15 | 8/8 | 2/2 | 0/0 | | 0 | 11 | 15 | 40 | 58 | 69 | 73 | 100 | 100 | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/22 | 7/72 | 17/59 | 18/49 | 14/36 | 17/21 | 12/13 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | | 0 | 10 | 29 | 37 | 39 | 81 | 92 | 100 | 100 | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 1/16 | 8/71 | 17/63 | 18/57 | 22/41 | 10/14 | 8/9 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 0/0 | | 6 | 11 | 27 | 32 | 54 | 71 | 89 | 100 | 100 | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/8 | 8/68 | 24/75 | 21/70 | 18/34 | 10/13 | 4/4 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 12 | 32 | 30 | 53 | 77 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/8 | 7/60 | 24/85 | 29/77 | 20/36 | 6/7 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 12 | 28 | 38 | 56 | 86 | 100 | | | |
降水確率的中率のグラフ
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Last updated 2024/10/01
連絡先：tf2