東京地方 天気予報
降水確率精度検証結果一覧表
表の見方と注意事項
グラフ 戻る
2024/01
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/76 | 0/31 | 0/10 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 2/3 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 0 | 67 | 0 | | 100 | 100 | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/5 | 0/10 | 1/9 | 0/3 | 0/1 | 0/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | | | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/9 | 1/15 | 0/2 | 0/2 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | | 50 | | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/6 | 1/19 | 0/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 5 | 0 | | | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/8 | 1/16 | 0/4 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | | | 100 | 100 | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/5 | 1/18 | 0/5 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | | 100 | | 100 | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 1/21 | 0/5 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 5 | 0 | 100 | | 100 | | | | |
2024/02
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/37 | 1/40 | 1/7 | 2/5 | 1/3 | 6/10 | 6/11 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 40 | 33 | 60 | 55 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/11 | 0/3 | 1/3 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 1/2 | 1/2 | 2/2 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 33 | 33 | 100 | 100 | 50 | 50 | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 1/11 | 0/4 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 3/3 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | | 0 | 9 | 0 | 50 | 100 | 100 | 50 | 100 | 100 | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 1/11 | 1/2 | 0/4 | 0/1 | 4/4 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | | 0 | 9 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 100 | | 100 | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 1/14 | 0/1 | 0/4 | 1/1 | 2/3 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | | 50 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 67 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 1/9 | 2/9 | 0/3 | 2/2 | 1/2 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 11 | 22 | 0 | 100 | 50 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/7 | 2/9 | 2/5 | 3/3 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 22 | 40 | 100 | 50 | 100 | | | |
2024/03
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/54 | 0/32 | 0/11 | 2/3 | 0/1 | 6/9 | 3/3 | 3/4 | 5/5 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 0 | 67 | 100 | 75 | 100 | 100 | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/2 | 0/12 | 0/4 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 2/2 | 3/4 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 100 | 75 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/5 | 0/12 | 0/2 | 1/1 | 3/4 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 75 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 0/11 | 2/4 | 1/3 | 1/2 | 3/3 | 3/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 50 | 33 | 50 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 1/13 | 1/4 | 1/2 | 3/3 | 3/3 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 8 | 25 | 50 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/14 | 3/6 | 1/2 | 3/3 | 3/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 50 | 50 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 0/10 | 3/8 | 1/3 | 6/6 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 38 | 33 | 100 | 100 | | | | |
2024/04
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/46 | 1/22 | 3/18 | 0/11 | 0/2 | 4/6 | 4/6 | 2/3 | 4/4 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 67 | 67 | 100 | 100 | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/2 | 1/9 | 1/3 | 1/3 | 1/3 | 3/4 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 11 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 75 | 33 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/5 | 2/6 | 1/4 | 3/8 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 3/4 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 33 | 25 | 38 | 50 | | 75 | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 2/9 | 0/3 | 4/8 | 2/4 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 22 | 0 | 50 | 50 | 67 | 100 | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 2/10 | 2/4 | 3/9 | 2/3 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 20 | 50 | 33 | 67 | 67 | | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2/9 | 4/11 | 2/4 | 1/4 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 22 | 36 | 50 | 25 | 100 | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2/8 | 4/12 | 2/4 | 1/4 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 25 | 33 | 50 | 25 | 100 | | | | |
2024/05
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/50 | 0/29 | 1/9 | 0/7 | 0/1 | 3/9 | 3/4 | 5/6 | 6/6 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 75 | 83 | 100 | 100 | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/4 | 0/4 | 1/6 | 0/5 | 2/3 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 3/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 67 | 50 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/7 | 1/7 | 2/5 | 0/1 | 6/8 | 0/0 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | | 0 | 14 | 40 | 0 | 75 | | 50 | | 100 | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/5 | 1/7 | 2/6 | 2/4 | 4/7 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 14 | 33 | 50 | 57 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 2/9 | 2/7 | 2/6 | 3/6 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 22 | 29 | 33 | 50 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/9 | 1/4 | 4/10 | 3/6 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 11 | 25 | 40 | 50 | 100 | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/7 | 2/7 | 4/10 | 4/7 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 14 | 29 | 40 | 57 | | | | | |
2024/06
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/23 | 1/37 | 2/30 | 4/11 | 0/0 | 2/5 | 4/6 | 4/4 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 36 | | 40 | 67 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 2/8 | 1/6 | 0/3 | 4/6 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | | 0 | 25 | 17 | 0 | 67 | 100 | | 100 | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 1/8 | 1/6 | 2/5 | 3/6 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 13 | 17 | 40 | 50 | 67 | 100 | | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 1/4 | 2/7 | 2/7 | 2/7 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 25 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 67 | 100 | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 3/10 | 1/7 | 4/9 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 30 | 14 | 44 | 50 | 100 | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 3/10 | 5/12 | 2/7 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | | 30 | 42 | 29 | 0 | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 3/11 | 6/14 | 1/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | | 27 | 43 | 20 | | | | | |
2024年合計
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/286 | 3/191 | 7/85 | 8/37 | 1/8 | 23/42 | 20/31 | 15/18 | 20/20 | 10/10 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 13 | 55 | 65 | 83 | 100 | 100 | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/13 | 1/50 | 5/33 | 3/21 | 4/13 | 11/16 | 9/12 | 5/6 | 9/10 | 8/8 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 14 | 31 | 69 | 75 | 83 | 90 | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/31 | 6/59 | 4/23 | 7/19 | 14/21 | 8/10 | 8/11 | 6/6 | 2/2 | 0/0 | | 0 | 10 | 17 | 37 | 67 | 80 | 73 | 100 | 100 | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/22 | 6/61 | 7/26 | 9/26 | 9/21 | 13/15 | 9/9 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | | 0 | 10 | 27 | 35 | 43 | 87 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 1/16 | 7/63 | 8/30 | 7/29 | 13/22 | 9/12 | 7/7 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 0/0 | | 6 | 11 | 27 | 24 | 59 | 75 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/8 | 5/59 | 13/45 | 12/32 | 11/22 | 9/11 | 3/3 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 8 | 29 | 38 | 50 | 82 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/8 | 4/53 | 14/52 | 16/37 | 15/25 | 5/6 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 8 | 27 | 43 | 60 | 83 | 100 | | | |
降水確率的中率のグラフ
戻る
Last updated 2024/07/01
連絡先：tf2