東京地方 天気予報
降水確率精度検証結果一覧表
表の見方と注意事項
グラフ 戻る
2023/01
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/33 | 0/59 | 2/17 | 0/9 | 0/0 | 1/3 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | | 33 | 100 | | | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/16 | 1/6 | 0/3 | 1/1 | 1/4 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 17 | 0 | 100 | 25 | 100 | | | | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/15 | 0/5 | 0/4 | 3/3 | 1/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 25 | | | | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/14 | 0/6 | 0/4 | 3/4 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 75 | 33 | | | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/15 | 0/7 | 2/5 | 1/1 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 40 | 100 | 50 | | 0 | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/13 | 1/9 | 1/5 | 1/1 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 11 | 20 | 100 | 33 | | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/14 | 1/8 | 2/6 | 0/2 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 13 | 33 | 0 | 100 | | | | | |
2023/02
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/42 | 0/49 | 0/7 | 0/4 | 0/0 | 3/6 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 50 | 100 | | 100 | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/11 | 0/5 | 0/7 | 0/1 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 | | | 100 | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/6 | 0/10 | 0/4 | 0/2 | 1/3 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 50 | | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/6 | 0/9 | 0/6 | 0/2 | 2/3 | 0/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 0 | 100 | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 0/10 | 0/6 | 0/2 | 2/5 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 40 | | 100 | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 0/8 | 0/9 | 1/3 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33 | 50 | | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 0/11 | 0/6 | 1/5 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 67 | | | | | |
2023/03
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/38 | 1/43 | 0/15 | 2/7 | 0/1 | 1/3 | 6/8 | 2/3 | 6/6 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 33 | 75 | 67 | 100 | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/8 | 0/5 | 1/4 | 3/6 | 0/2 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 25 | 50 | 0 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/4 | 0/10 | 3/8 | 1/2 | 0/1 | 1/1 | 3/3 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 38 | 50 | 0 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 1/5 | 0/7 | 2/8 | 1/2 | 0/2 | 1/2 | 3/3 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 20 | 0 | 25 | 50 | 0 | 50 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 1/3 | 0/8 | 0/7 | 3/4 | 0/3 | 2/2 | 4/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 33 | 0 | 0 | 75 | 0 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 2/9 | 0/7 | 2/4 | 2/6 | 3/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 22 | 0 | 50 | 33 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/10 | 1/6 | 3/8 | 4/6 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 10 | 17 | 38 | 67 | 100 | | | | |
2023/04
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/49 | 0/32 | 2/15 | 1/6 | 1/3 | 3/7 | 1/1 | 3/3 | 3/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 17 | 33 | 43 | 100 | 100 | 75 | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/2 | 0/8 | 0/7 | 2/4 | 0/2 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 3/3 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 0 | | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/7 | 0/7 | 2/6 | 0/2 | 0/2 | 1/1 | 4/4 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/5 | 1/9 | 1/6 | 0/3 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 11 | 17 | 0 | 67 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 1/10 | 1/6 | 0/4 | 3/3 | 0/1 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 10 | 17 | 0 | 100 | 0 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 2/10 | 1/9 | 0/3 | 2/3 | 2/2 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 20 | 11 | 0 | 67 | 100 | 50 | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2/12 | 0/8 | 1/3 | 5/6 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 17 | 0 | 33 | 83 | | 0 | | | |
2023/05
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/40 | 0/36 | 1/8 | 2/9 | 0/2 | 5/10 | 9/11 | 6/6 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 22 | 0 | 50 | 82 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/12 | 0/3 | 0/1 | 3/5 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 60 | 67 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/7 | 1/7 | 1/3 | 3/6 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 4/5 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 14 | 33 | 50 | 100 | | 80 | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/5 | 1/6 | 1/5 | 4/7 | 1/2 | 2/2 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 17 | 20 | 57 | 50 | 100 | 67 | 100 | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 1/9 | 3/9 | 3/4 | 3/4 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 11 | 33 | 75 | 75 | 67 | | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 1/3 | 2/12 | 2/5 | 3/5 | 3/4 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 33 | 17 | 40 | 60 | 75 | 50 | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 1/4 | 1/7 | 5/11 | 1/3 | 3/5 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 25 | 14 | 45 | 33 | 60 | 100 | | | | |
2023/06
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/14 | 2/37 | 1/27 | 2/11 | 1/3 | 5/10 | 5/7 | 3/3 | 5/5 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 33 | 50 | 71 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 0/5 | 2/5 | 3/5 | 2/3 | 1/1 | 4/5 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 40 | 60 | 67 | 100 | 80 | 100 | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 1/5 | 2/7 | 2/3 | 3/5 | 4/4 | 1/1 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 20 | 29 | 67 | 60 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 1/5 | 1/5 | 3/6 | 6/9 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 20 | 20 | 50 | 67 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/4 | 2/5 | 2/7 | 7/11 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 25 | 40 | 29 | 64 | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 3/7 | 7/11 | 3/9 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 43 | 64 | 33 | 100 | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 2/6 | 8/11 | 5/11 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 33 | 73 | 45 | | | | | |
2023/07
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/23 | 0/43 | 2/33 | 2/12 | 0/3 | 2/9 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 22 | 0 | | | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/5 | 0/9 | 2/7 | 1/5 | 1/4 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 29 | 20 | 25 | 0 | | | | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/9 | 2/7 | 1/9 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 29 | 11 | 33 | | | 0 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/6 | 1/9 | 1/11 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9 | 67 | | | 0 | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/4 | 0/12 | 2/10 | 2/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 50 | | | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/5 | 1/15 | 3/7 | 0/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 7 | 43 | 0 | | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/2 | 0/18 | 3/6 | 1/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 0 | 50 | 20 | | | | | |
2023/08
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/13 | 0/22 | 1/42 | 6/25 | 1/4 | 5/11 | 3/6 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 25 | 45 | 50 | 100 | | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/8 | 5/11 | 2/5 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 45 | 40 | 50 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/7 | 6/11 | 0/4 | 2/4 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 55 | 0 | 50 | 100 | 100 | | 100 | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 3/10 | 4/10 | 0/5 | 1/2 | 2/2 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 30 | 40 | 0 | 50 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/9 | 6/10 | 1/5 | 1/2 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 60 | 20 | 50 | 100 | | 100 | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/5 | 4/13 | 3/6 | 4/5 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 31 | 50 | 80 | 100 | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/6 | 5/15 | 5/7 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 33 | 71 | 67 | | | | | |
2023/09
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/4 | 0/43 | 1/40 | 1/11 | 0/0 | 7/14 | 1/2 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | | 50 | 50 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 1/13 | 0/4 | 1/3 | 3/3 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 1/2 | 1/1 | 0/0 | | 0 | 8 | 0 | 33 | 100 | 50 | 100 | 50 | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 0/11 | 0/6 | 4/4 | 2/4 | 3/3 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 50 | 100 | 0 | | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 1/13 | 2/6 | 4/5 | 1/4 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 8 | 33 | 80 | 25 | 100 | | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/1 | 1/11 | 3/9 | 2/4 | 3/5 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 9 | 33 | 50 | 60 | | | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 2/9 | 1/9 | 3/8 | 3/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 22 | 11 | 38 | 75 | | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/6 | 3/12 | 1/5 | 5/7 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | | 0 | 25 | 20 | 71 | | | | | |
2023/10
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/39 | 1/49 | 1/21 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 4/5 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 4/4 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 33 | 100 | 80 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/15 | 0/7 | 1/2 | 1/3 | 2/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 50 | 33 | 100 | | | 100 | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/9 | 0/13 | 1/2 | 1/3 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 0 | 50 | 33 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/7 | 1/15 | 2/4 | 1/3 | 0/0 | 1/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 7 | 50 | 33 | | 100 | 100 | | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 1/5 | 0/12 | 1/6 | 3/6 | 0/1 | 1/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 20 | 0 | 17 | 50 | 0 | 100 | | | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/7 | 1/7 | 0/6 | 3/8 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 14 | 0 | 38 | 67 | | | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/3 | 1/9 | 2/10 | 2/7 | 1/2 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 0 | 11 | 20 | 29 | 50 | | | | | |
2023年合計
| | 実際の降水日数／予報日数 | 実際の降水日数割合（%） |
| 予報降水確率 | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% |
| 1日前予報 | 0/295 | 4/413 | 11/225 | 17/97 | 4/17 | 36/78 | 30/41 | 18/19 | 25/26 | 5/5 | 0/0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 24 | 46 | 73 | 95 | 96 | 100 | |
| 2日前予報 | 0/2 | 0/80 | 2/68 | 13/48 | 15/36 | 13/26 | 7/9 | 12/13 | 9/10 | 12/12 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 27 | 42 | 50 | 78 | 92 | 90 | 100 | |
| 3日前予報 | 0/0 | 0/55 | 2/84 | 17/58 | 15/38 | 12/28 | 13/14 | 14/16 | 9/10 | 1/1 | 0/0 | | 0 | 2 | 29 | 39 | 43 | 93 | 88 | 90 | 100 | |
| 4日前予報 | 0/0 | 1/45 | 8/86 | 14/63 | 17/48 | 16/31 | 10/12 | 11/12 | 6/7 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 2 | 9 | 22 | 35 | 52 | 83 | 92 | 86 | | |
| 5日前予報 | 0/0 | 2/35 | 4/84 | 18/75 | 17/47 | 22/40 | 10/12 | 7/8 | 3/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 6 | 5 | 24 | 36 | 55 | 83 | 88 | 100 | | |
| 6日前予報 | 0/0 | 1/30 | 10/75 | 13/85 | 26/56 | 22/45 | 9/10 | 2/3 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 3 | 13 | 15 | 46 | 49 | 90 | 67 | | | |
| 7日前予報 | 0/0 | 1/24 | 6/73 | 20/98 | 25/57 | 29/49 | 2/2 | 0/1 | 0/0 | 0/0 | 0/0 | | 4 | 8 | 20 | 44 | 59 | 100 | 0 | | | |
降水確率的中率のグラフ
戻る
Last updated 2023/11/01
連絡先：tf2