東京地方 天気予報

  降水確率精度検証結果一覧表

表の見方と注意事項

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2011/01
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/440/561/180/60/00/00/00/00/00/00/00060       
 2日前予報0/00/100/161/30/20/00/00/00/00/00/0 00330      
 3日前予報0/00/71/180/20/40/00/00/00/00/00/0 0600      
 4日前予報0/00/60/101/110/30/10/00/00/00/00/0 00900     
 5日前予報0/00/30/131/90/60/00/00/00/00/00/0 00110      
 6日前予報0/00/11/180/60/60/00/00/00/00/00/0 0600      
 7日前予報0/00/01/170/100/40/00/00/00/00/00/0  600      

2011/02
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/230/391/242/100/03/44/43/43/31/10/000420 7510075100100 
 2日前予報0/00/20/72/92/30/21/13/31/10/00/0 0022670100100100  
 3日前予報0/00/11/91/71/51/13/32/20/00/00/0 0111420100100100   
 4日前予報0/00/11/71/80/53/32/22/20/00/00/0 014130100100100   
 5日前予報0/00/00/63/111/62/21/12/20/00/00/0  02717100100100   
 6日前予報0/00/01/73/133/61/11/10/00/00/00/0  142350100100    
 7日前予報0/00/01/72/115/90/01/10/00/00/00/0  141856 100    

2011/03
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/330/450/201/111/12/63/32/21/12/20/0000910033100100100100 
 2日前予報0/00/60/121/60/11/20/13/30/00/00/0 00170500100   
 3日前予報0/00/40/121/90/10/01/23/30/00/00/0 00110 50100   
 4日前予報0/00/10/151/90/22/20/02/20/00/00/0 00110100 100   
 5日前予報0/00/00/151/101/32/20/01/10/00/00/0  01033100 100   
 6日前予報0/00/00/132/121/42/20/00/00/00/00/0  01725100     
 7日前予報0/00/01/161/101/32/20/00/00/00/00/0  61033100     

2011/04
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/480/351/183/70/21/31/14/51/10/00/00064303310080100  
 2日前予報0/00/80/52/100/20/11/21/11/10/00/0 00200050100100  
 3日前予報0/00/50/71/100/11/23/50/00/00/00/0 001005060    
 4日前予報0/00/30/61/94/90/20/10/00/00/00/0 00114400    
 5日前予報0/00/20/52/122/71/30/10/00/00/00/0 001729330    
 6日前予報0/00/01/72/142/60/20/10/00/00/00/0  14143300    
 7日前予報0/00/01/83/131/70/10/10/00/00/00/0  13231400    

2011/05
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/210/381/220/53/73/94/76/76/62/20/0005043335786100100 
 2日前予報0/00/40/81/32/43/43/33/31/11/10/0 00335075100100100100 
 3日前予報0/00/20/92/52/46/74/40/00/00/00/0 00405086100    
 4日前予報0/00/20/72/55/96/71/10/00/00/00/0 00405686100    
 5日前予報0/00/00/71/67/115/61/10/00/00/00/0  0176483100    
 6日前予報0/00/00/64/85/105/70/00/00/00/00/0  0505071     
 7日前予報0/00/00/36/113/125/50/00/00/00/00/0  05525100     

2011/06
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/81/302/380/173/73/133/32/22/20/00/003504323100100100  
 2日前予報0/00/00/32/103/71/41/32/21/10/00/0  020432533100100  
 3日前予報0/00/01/31/61/95/71/41/10/00/00/0  3317117125100   
 4日前予報0/00/00/21/44/114/91/40/00/00/00/0  025364425    
 5日前予報0/00/00/21/46/122/81/40/00/00/00/0  025502525    
 6日前予報0/00/00/32/65/113/70/30/00/00/00/0  03345430    
 7日前予報0/00/00/14/75/161/50/10/00/00/00/0  05731200    

2011/07
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/100/373/271/180/74/142/42/33/31/10/0001160295067100100 
 2日前予報0/00/00/70/92/72/50/00/02/21/10/0  002940  100100 
 3日前予報0/00/00/42/122/90/21/21/11/10/00/0  01722050100100  
 4日前予報0/00/00/40/93/120/12/32/20/00/00/0  0025067100   
 5日前予報0/00/00/11/93/171/11/21/10/00/00/0  0111810050100   
 6日前予報0/00/00/01/103/152/51/10/00/00/00/0   102040100    
 7日前予報0/00/00/01/104/162/50/00/00/00/00/0   102540     

2011/08
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/60/293/351/213/94/122/64/60/00/00/0009533333367   
 2日前予報0/00/00/52/125/82/30/12/20/00/00/0  01763670100   
 3日前予報0/00/00/33/123/83/62/20/00/00/00/0  0253850100    
 4日前予報0/00/01/43/142/64/61/10/00/00/00/0  25213367100    
 5日前予報0/00/02/63/144/81/21/10/00/00/00/0  33215050100    
 6日前予報0/00/01/74/124/92/30/00/00/00/00/0  14334467     
 7日前予報0/00/01/42/127/141/10/00/00/00/00/0  251750100     

2011/09
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/161/412/224/153/64/72/62/31/31/10/0029275057336733100 
 2日前予報0/00/11/81/111/21/21/11/13/31/10/0 01395050100100100100 
 3日前予報0/00/21/80/91/22/21/22/23/30/00/0 01305010050100100  
 4日前予報0/00/31/80/52/71/12/23/31/10/00/0 013029100100100100  
 5日前予報0/00/21/82/82/71/11/13/30/00/00/0 0132529100100100   
 6日前予報0/00/02/102/82/81/12/21/10/00/00/0  202525100100100   
 7日前予報0/00/01/63/92/103/41/10/00/00/00/0  17332075100    

2011/10
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/250/443/240/122/52/71/14/51/10/00/000130402910080100  
 2日前予報0/00/12/100/51/62/41/11/22/20/00/0 0200175010050100  
 3日前予報0/01/31/100/41/51/32/23/40/00/00/0 33100203310075   
 4日前予報0/01/21/91/81/50/15/60/00/00/00/0 50111320083    
 5日前予報0/01/31/91/71/63/32/30/00/00/00/0 3311141710067    
 6日前予報0/00/12/91/122/42/32/20/00/00/00/0 02285067100    
 7日前予報0/00/02/101/113/63/40/00/00/00/00/0  2095075     

2011/11
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/310/572/142/60/13/51/21/22/20/00/00014330605050100  
 2日前予報0/01/50/122/60/10/31/10/02/20/00/0 2003300100 100  
 3日前予報0/01/81/91/40/41/20/02/30/00/00/0 131125050 67   
 4日前予報0/01/52/110/40/42/40/11/10/00/00/0 201800500100   
 5日前予報0/00/22/141/60/03/80/00/00/00/00/0 01417 38     
 6日前予報0/00/21/122/72/31/50/10/00/00/00/0 082967200    
 7日前予報0/00/01/153/61/41/50/00/00/00/00/0  7502520     

2011/12
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/540/410/101/25/63/71/20/01/11/10/000050834350 100100 
 2日前予報0/00/80/120/23/53/30/00/01/10/00/0 00060100  100  
 3日前予報0/00/110/82/42/42/20/10/01/10/00/0 0050501000 100  
 4日前予報0/00/92/101/41/42/30/01/10/00/00/0 020252567 100   
 5日前予報0/00/43/140/51/42/31/10/00/00/00/0 02102567100    
 6日前予報0/00/32/121/61/72/21/10/00/00/00/0 0171714100100    
 7日前予報0/00/22/140/74/71/10/00/00/00/00/0 014057100     

2011合計
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/3192/49219/27215/13020/5132/8724/3930/3921/238/80/0007123937627791100 
 2日前予報0/01/453/10514/8619/4815/339/1416/1714/143/30/0 231640456494100100 
 3日前予報0/02/436/10014/8413/5622/3418/2714/165/50/00/0 561723656788100  
 4日前予報0/02/328/9312/9022/7724/4014/2111/111/10/00/0 6913296067100100  
 5日前予報0/01/169/10017/10128/8723/399/157/70/00/00/0 6917325960100   
 6日前予報0/00/711/10424/11430/8921/387/121/10/00/00/0 01121345558100   
 7日前予報0/00/211/10126/11736/10819/332/40/00/00/00/0 01122335850    


降水確率的中率のグラフ
降水確率的中率

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Last updated 2012/01/01

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