東京地方 天気予報

  降水確率精度検証結果一覧表

表の見方と注意事項

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2007/01
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/570/341/160/51/41/51/20/00/01/10/00060252050  100 
 2日前予報0/00/170/41/40/10/22/20/01/10/00/0 002500100 100  
 3日前予報0/00/100/82/50/10/31/11/30/00/00/0 00400010033   
 4日前予報0/00/120/11/81/51/31/20/00/00/00/0 0013203350    
 5日前予報0/00/81/70/51/31/61/20/00/00/00/0 0140331750    
 6日前予報0/00/60/91/52/41/70/00/00/00/00/0 00205014     
 7日前予報0/00/60/82/61/61/50/00/00/00/00/0 00331720     

2007/02
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/660/200/82/70/23/42/22/21/10/00/000029075100100100  
 2日前予報0/00/170/41/11/12/30/00/02/20/00/0 0010010067  100  
 3日前予報0/00/140/60/20/00/03/33/30/00/00/0 000  100100   
 4日前予報0/00/110/40/50/24/42/20/00/00/00/0 0000100100    
 5日前予報0/00/90/80/50/05/51/10/00/00/00/0 000 100100    
 6日前予報0/00/90/73/81/21/11/10/00/00/00/0 003850100100    
 7日前予報0/00/72/80/73/50/01/10/00/00/00/0 025060 100    

2007/03
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/530/401/140/70/11/52/22/20/00/00/00070020100100   
 2日前予報0/00/150/60/30/10/22/20/02/20/00/0 00000100 100  
 3日前予報0/00/140/60/20/10/12/42/30/00/00/0 000005067   
 4日前予報0/00/110/40/51/51/22/30/10/00/00/0 0002050670   
 5日前予報0/00/60/81/61/41/51/20/00/00/00/0 0017252050    
 6日前予報0/00/10/101/101/41/31/30/00/00/00/0 0010253333    
 7日前予報0/00/00/81/92/91/50/00/00/00/00/0  0112220     

2007/04
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/310/312/162/73/79/171/41/12/23/31/1001329435325100100100100
 2日前予報0/01/42/51/53/51/41/13/41/11/10/0 254020602510075100100 
 3日前予報0/02/62/60/34/62/24/60/00/10/00/0 333306710067 0  
 4日前予報0/03/51/40/43/76/81/20/00/00/00/0 60250437550    
 5日前予報0/01/33/51/44/114/51/20/00/00/00/0 336025368050    
 6日前予報0/01/52/32/26/143/50/10/00/00/00/0 206710043600    
 7日前予報0/00/22/43/97/132/20/00/00/00/00/0 0503354100     

2007/05
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/451/381/140/60/15/114/42/23/30/00/00370045100100100  
 2日前予報0/00/100/91/20/12/40/04/41/10/00/0 0050050 100100  
 3日前予報0/00/110/61/40/01/14/51/21/20/00/0 0025 100805050  
 4日前予報0/00/90/70/41/23/44/50/00/00/00/0 000507580    
 5日前予報0/01/60/70/63/62/42/20/00/00/00/0 17005050100    
 6日前予報0/00/41/71/73/92/31/10/00/00/00/0 014143367100    
 7日前予報0/01/31/72/83/110/11/10/00/00/00/0 331425270100    

2007/06
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報2/251/362/224/161/53/81/30/22/30/00/083925203833067  
 2日前予報0/01/30/82/51/50/14/52/30/00/00/0 330402008067   
 3日前予報0/01/70/31/52/41/23/52/30/10/00/0 14020505060670  
 4日前予報0/00/50/23/71/52/44/60/10/00/00/0 00432050670   
 5日前予報0/00/32/52/72/81/33/40/00/00/00/0 04029253375    
 6日前予報0/00/21/63/83/82/31/30/00/00/00/0 01738386733    
 7日前予報0/00/23/61/63/113/40/10/00/00/00/0 0501727750    

2007/07
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/70/255/353/172/95/111/66/74/50/02/20014182245178680 100
 2日前予報0/00/00/50/31/71/45/73/32/20/00/0  00142571100100  
 3日前予報0/00/00/42/72/61/33/43/61/10/00/0  02933337550100  
 4日前予報0/00/00/23/83/124/61/21/10/00/00/0  038256750100   
 5日前予報0/00/01/31/53/137/100/00/00/00/00/0  33202370     
 6日前予報0/00/00/12/53/137/100/20/00/00/00/0  04023700    
 7日前予報0/00/00/01/45/175/91/10/00/00/00/0   252956100    

2007/08
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/260/391/331/130/31/70/10/10/10/00/00038014000  
 2日前予報0/00/71/61/81/60/20/00/00/10/10/0 01713170  00 
 3日前予報0/00/81/61/71/70/00/00/30/00/00/0 0171414  0   
 4日前予報0/00/91/50/52/90/00/00/20/10/00/0 020022  00  
 5日前予報0/00/92/60/71/40/20/20/10/00/00/0 033025000   
 6日前予報0/00/71/81/101/20/40/00/00/00/00/0 01310500     
 7日前予報0/00/30/91/142/40/10/00/00/00/00/0 007500     

2007/09
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/120/381/202/127/112/93/65/61/14/41/10051764225083100100100
 2日前予報0/00/41/52/70/51/23/41/11/11/10/0 0202905075100100100 
 3日前予報0/01/83/80/30/21/11/13/61/10/00/0 13380010010050100  
 4日前予報0/01/70/24/92/62/30/01/30/00/00/0 140443367 33   
 5日前予報0/01/40/34/92/83/50/10/00/00/00/0 2504425600    
 6日前予報0/00/21/73/93/73/40/10/00/00/00/0 0143343750    
 7日前予報0/00/31/53/93/73/50/00/10/00/00/0 020334360 0   

2007/10
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/220/341/231/211/62/73/33/44/40/00/00045172910075100  
 2日前予報0/00/50/11/103/62/52/40/00/00/00/0 0010504050    
 3日前予報0/00/60/103/42/43/50/10/10/00/00/0 0075506000   
 4日前予報0/01/81/82/50/32/42/30/00/00/00/0 13134005067    
 5日前予報0/01/81/61/82/42/31/20/00/00/00/0 131713506750    
 6日前予報0/00/52/91/73/62/40/00/00/00/00/0 022145050     
 7日前予報0/00/32/113/93/70/10/00/00/00/00/0 01833430     

2007/11
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/391/381/180/70/51/40/23/33/40/00/00360025010075  
 2日前予報0/00/110/90/20/21/10/01/32/20/00/0 0000100 33100  
 3日前予報0/00/100/50/60/11/21/22/40/00/00/0 0000505050   
 4日前予報0/00/70/80/20/40/32/22/40/00/00/0 0000010050   
 5日前予報0/00/60/60/71/51/40/01/11/10/00/0 0002025 100100  
 6日前予報0/00/30/101/70/51/20/12/20/00/00/0 00140500100   
 7日前予報0/00/30/101/101/42/30/00/00/00/00/0 00102567     

2007/12
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報0/481/430/201/20/20/13/42/22/20/00/0020500075100100  
 2日前予報0/00/160/60/30/01/13/31/11/10/00/0 000 100100100100  
 3日前予報0/01/161/60/41/20/02/21/10/00/00/0 617050 100100   
 4日前予報0/00/133/110/30/12/20/01/10/00/00/0 02700100 100   
 5日前予報0/01/122/91/60/12/30/00/00/00/00/0 82217067     
 6日前予報0/00/122/92/60/12/30/00/00/00/00/0 02233067     
 7日前予報0/00/123/111/21/41/20/00/00/00/00/0 027502550     

2007合計
 実際の降水日数/予報日数実際の降水日数割合(%)
予報降水確率0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
 1日前予報2/4314/41616/23916/12015/5633/8921/3926/3222/268/84/4017132737548185100100
 2日前予報0/02/1094/6810/5310/4011/3122/2815/1913/142/30/0 2619253579799367 
 3日前予報0/05/1107/7410/5212/3410/2024/3418/353/60/00/0 59193550715150  
 4日前予報0/05/976/5813/6514/6127/4319/275/130/10/00/0 51020236370380  
 5日前予報0/05/7412/7311/7520/6729/5510/181/21/10/00/0 7161530535650100  
 6日前予報0/01/5610/8621/8426/7525/494/132/20/00/00/0 21225355131100   
 7日前予報0/01/4414/8719/9334/9818/383/40/10/00/00/0 216203547750   


降水確率的中率のグラフ
降水確率的中率

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Last updated 2008/01/01

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